ELSA MOVING NORTHWARD, HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING INLAND


As of the 11 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center, Elsa moving north at 14mph. Elsa Moving northward just offshore of the Tampa Bay area. Heavy rains and gusty wins spreading island across Southwest and West-Central Florida.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...27.3N 83.2W

ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA

ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located

by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler

weather radars near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 83.2 West. Elsa

is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general

motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the

north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster

northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa

will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later

tonight and early Wednesday morning. Elsa is forecast to make

landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late Wednesday

morning and then move across the southeastern United States through

Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher

gusts. Some fluctuations in the intensity are possible until

landfall occurs on Tuesday. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves

inland by late Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles

(130 km). Sarasota Airport recently reported a sustained wind

of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the

aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward from Altamaha

Sound, Georgia, to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Little River

Inlet, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico

and Albemarle Sounds.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been

discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of

Chokoloskee, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla

River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of Florida from Chokoloskee to south of Egmont Key

* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee

River

* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South

Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Duck, North

Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,

please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning

Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening

situation. Persons located within these areas should take all

necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water

and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow

evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12

to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at

risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge

Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast

should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

Photo: Photo: NHC

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and

on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning

area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical

storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in

the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions

are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the

Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas tonight and early

Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical

Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late Wednesday and

along the South Carolina coast Wednesday night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will

cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising

waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft

Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to

4 ft

Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft

Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft

Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south

of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall.

Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain

areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and

impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the

Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up

to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable

flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate

river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum

totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in

considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to

isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South

Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches

will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban

flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern

Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches

Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated

flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight across the western

and central Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on

Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and eastern South

Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas

and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida

Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These

swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office

for more details.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.


Sponsored Content

Sponsored Content