Elsa Intensifies Into A Cat 1 Hurricane


Hurricane Elsa 8PM Update 7/6/21

Photo: NHC

As of the 8 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center, Elsa has intensified into a category 1 hurricane and is about 100 miles from Tampa, Florida. The maximum sustained winds have picked up to 75 MPH.

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...26.6N 83.1W

ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Lower Florida Keys from Key West

to the Seven Mile Bridge has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla

River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Dry Tortugas

* West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key

* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee

River

* Coast of Georgia from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to

Altamaha Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South

Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,

please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning

Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening

situation. Persons located within these areas should take all

necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water

and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow

evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12

to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at

risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge

Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast

should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located

by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.6 North, longitude

83.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 10 mph (22 km/h),

and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A

turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed

by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast

track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of

Florida later tonight and early Wednesday morning. Elsa is forecast

to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late

Wednesday morning and then move across the southeastern United

States through Thursday.

Data from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Tampa Bay indicate that

maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher

gusts. Some additional slight strengthening will be possible

overnight. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late

Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (32 km) from

the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles

(150 km) from the center. Buoy 42013, located due north of Elsa,

recently measured a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h)

gusting to 47 mph (76 km/h). A wind gust to 43 mph (69 mph) was

recently measured on North Captiva Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).

Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities

Photo: NHC


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