NOAA Expects More Active Hurricane Season

posted by Alan McBride - 

On Wednesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its scheduled update for its 2017 hurricane season outlook.

 Forecasters say things will be busier than first forecast.

They say they anticipate a higher likelihood of an above-normal season, and they increased the predicted number of named storms and major hurricanes. 

Forecasters now say there is a 60-percent chance of an above-normal season with 14-19 named storms.

Between 5-9 of those storms could become hurricanes, and between 2-5 of them could become major hurricanes of Category 3 or better.

Forecasters say they're issuing the update because we are entering the peak months of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

NOAA climatologists say several factors point to this being a more active season than first forecast. Among those factors are a lower chance of an El Nino forming ... which means less of a chance of a storm-inhibiting weather pattern, along with warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean where many storms form.

In just the first nine weeks of this season there have been six named storms, which is half the number of storms during an average six-month season and double the number of storms that would typically form by early August. 

The updated outlook is based on the current and evolving atmospheric and oceanic conditions, the most recent model predictions, and pre-and early-season storm activity. 

The numbers in the updated outlook include the season activity to-date.

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